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May 2018 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Struggling to stabilize


Aluminium prices continue to consolidate. There are many cross-currents buffeting this market and leaving no clear bull or bear narrative at the moment. Range-trading is likely to continue for the time being, but we would not be surprised to see a downside bias set in if Chinese production and exports continue to rise. Our technical analysis also has a bearish short-term bias.

Aluminium consolidating around the $2,300 per tonne support level
Base metals ended last week predominantly higher, although aluminium fell 2% from Thursday and edged below its $2,300 per tonne support level to end the week at $2,273.50 per tonne. Prices continue to trade around the $2,300 per tonne level at the start of this week.

Long liquidation driving down aluminium spec positioning

The net long fund position (NLFP) in aluminium dropped 8,003 lots or 17% over the latest weekly reporting period to May 4, whereas the LME aluminium price jumped 5.3%. The deterioration in aluminium’s speculative positioning – for the second week in a row – was driven by the long liquidation of 9,715 lots. The NLFP...

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