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March 2018 | Base Metals


Zinc: Fundamental assumptions reviewed


We have rebased our historical supply-demand data this week and reviewed our forecast assumptions. We now see a slightly tighter global refined zinc market in 2018-19. But our price forecasts remain unchanged.

Supply: Growth forecasts raised as concentrate supply recovers

There are a lot of developments taking place at the mine stage of the supply chain. The pace and timing of these will be a key factor shaping the overall fundamental picture. Guidance from the zinc miners we activity monitor, which covers around 70% of global production outside of China, implies production will increase 7.8% or 386,000 tonne in 2018, and a further 8.4% or 489,700 tonnes in 2019. This should be supplemented by stronger output from Chinese mines, forecast by Antaike to rise by 3.5% this year. This improved availability in the zinc concentrate market should lead to an incremental recovery in refined zinc production, particularly in...

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