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February 2018 | Base Metals

Nickel: Not bullish enough

The strength of the uptrend in nickel prices has exceeded our already-bullish expectations. We have this week replaced our previous base case scenario for Q1 ($12,200 per tonne) with our high-case scenario ($12,900 per tonne). In MB’s Apex survey, we were already the most bullish forecasters for nickel over Q2-Q4 2018. It looks like we were right to take this stance, but even our forecasts had begun to look too conservative and we have also raised these scenarios this week.

Cautious sellers, eager buyers A strong rebound in the dollar index and somewhat wobbly sentiment in the equity market has been enough to send volatile LME nickel prices lower again in recent days. The metal has been the subject of selling so far this week and has showed very little energy on the upside as it corrects and consolidates last week’s fresh-2018 high of $14,420 per tonne. Indeed, the technical configuration has deteriorated and there is a danger of further downside for prices in the short term. This may well mimic the corrective action that followed each previous ‘higher high’ in the series that goes...


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