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January 2018 | Base Metals


Technical analysis: Consolidation after year-end rallies


Most base metals are in consolidation mode after rallying strongly at the end of December and in some cases the start of January. Rallies in lead and zinc do not seem to be done yet.

Aluminium Aluminium is consolidating after extending to a fresh five-year high at $2,290.50 per tonne on December 29. With prices below $2,200 per tonne, immediate support at $2,215 per tonne from the October 26 and November 1 double-top has failed, but the daily candlesticks imply indecision. Although prices are drifting lower, they remain in high ground. The RSI has eased to 59 from an overbought 79. Support is now seen at the late November highs around $2,140 per tonne, which coincides with the 20 DMA. The 55 DMA at $2,127 per tonne is converging on the 100 DMA at $2,124 per tonne. So far the 55 DMA has avoided a negative ‘death cross’ below the longer-term MA. Short-to-medium-term sentiment should remain positive as a result, with the clearance of resistance at $2,215 per tonne opening the way to test the $2,350-2,360 per tonne level last seen in March 2012. ...

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