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January 2018 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Flatter price outlook this year


Outside of broad factors such as growing investor interest in commodities and a solid global economic growth outlook, the more aluminium-specific fundamental factors that are likely to define 2018 for this metal appear tied to global trade concerns – particularly protectionist rhetoric coming from the United States – as well as the future of supply cuts by Chinese smelters.

Significant LME and SHFE price rises in 2017...
On the back of the Chinese government’s clean-up of illegal capacity and its winter heating season production cuts in order to protect air quality, aluminium prices on both the LME and SHFE had significant increases in 2017. The LME aluminium price finished the year with a remarkable 30.8% increase while the SHFE aluminium price rose 18.5%, a less-strong but still decent gain.

For most of the year, the SHFE price performed better than the LME, but that...

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