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December 2017 | Base Metals

Aluminium: Sentiment bearish

Aluminium prices continue their downtrend as sentiment remains bearish after Chinese smelter cuts have fallen short of expectations and domestic stocks continue to build. Technical support is holding, at least for now, but we believe prices will maintain their downward bias in the coming weeks.

Sentiment getting more bearish
Aluminium prices continued their downtrend last week, with the weekly average LME cash price at $2,070.2/tonne, down 0.6% from the previous week’s $2,081.7/tonne. Official cash prices closed at $2,033/tonne last Thursday (30th of November), the lowest level since 14th of August, but, as we note in our technical analysis, chart support is holding, for now at least.

We have talked to attendees at CESCO Asia Week events last week and the overall sentiment towards the aluminium market at the moment was very bearish. This is because (1) the alumina market continues to weaken and there remains downside risks; (2) aluminium inventories...


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