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July 2017 | Base Metals


Tin: Chinese exports the swing factor for H2


The price forecast for Q2 that we made at the start of the quarter was spot-on after we toned down our earlier bullishness given the likelihood of rising Chinese exports. For the second half of the year, all eyes are on Yunnan Tin as we wait for it start its tolling activity.

MBR’s initial take on Q2 proved to be overly bullish...

Cash tin prices ended Q2 averaging $19,962/tonne which represents a decline of 0.4% on Q1 levels. There is little doubt that the going has got heavier for tin in the past few months, given all the developments that are increasingly pointing to rising Chinese exports, but how did our Q2 forecast match up to reality? We started 2017 on a much more bullish footing than we are now, forecasting a Q2 price of $21,700/tonne, which at the time marked the quarterly high point for the year. However, this was in the period prior to the confirmation that China had abolished its 10% refined tin export tax. We continued to forecast Q2 pricing at this level until mid-March, even once the abolition of...

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