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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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June 2017 | Base Metals


Tin: 2017 price forecast revised lower


There are still huge uncertainties as to the way in which Chinese tin supply will develop in the future, given Yunnan Tin’s tolling permit and the threat of declining ore supply from Myanmar. However, we now feel that there is an increased likelihood that more refined tin will flow out of China in H2. As such, we feel it is necessary to reduce our price outlook for the period. Our forecasts further out remain unchanged.

Short covering gives tin a boost, but how long will this last?
After a sharp downturn in LME pricing during the first week of June, in response to news that Yunnan Tin had been granted tolling permissions, tin went some way to recouping these losses last week. But we are not yet convinced of the sustainability of this rally, with the upswing more related to a bout of short covering (judging by the drop in open interest and the stronger nearby backwardation) rather than any fresh buying.

Other Chinese smelters not likely to receive tolling rights in the near future

There has been no further clarity issued as to the situation at Yunnan Tin, or the potential for other Chinese smelters to also be granted tolling rights. But an...

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