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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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September 2014 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Aluminium prices climb to 18-month highs: Market Summary and Analysis


LME aluminium stocks fell 37,850 tonnes last week to 4,796,075 tonnes, which averaged 9,463 tonnes per day.

Aluminium is the strongest performer in the base metals complex at present with prices continuing to set fresh multi-month highs almost on a daily basis. So far prices have reached a high of $2,119.50/tonne, a price last seen in February 2013.

MBR revised price forecast for Q3 and Q4

MBR recently adjusted upwards forecast for Q3 aluminium cash prices to $2009/tonne from $1,843/tonne, and also our three-month futures price forecast to $2021/tonne from $1877/tonne. Our supply/demand balance suggests a deficit as high as 851k tonnes in Q4 as a result of strong demand and stable/flat production, which should lend further support to aluminium prices. As a result, we decided to bring up the cash price forecast for both Q3 and Q4, to $2009/tonne and $2045/tonne, respectively. ...

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