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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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April 2014 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium scrap.

Demand Analysis

MBR revises down 2014 expectations to 6.6% growth y-o-y

It is interesting to note that despite all the concerns that have been raised about the Chinese economy, and in particular base metals demand growth, in recent week’s Alcoa is projecting aluminium demand to increase by 10% in 2014. This number is in line with MBR’s projections. We note however, that Alcoa in general is more upbeat on the prospects for aluminium demand from other emerging economies than MBR is, for example in Brazil, India and Russia. MBR has carried out some revisions to its 2014 demand outlook, and now expects growth of 6.6% y-o-y including ex Chinese growth of 3.5%. For now we are including forecast growth of just 1.3% for Europe as a whole, but caution that demand during Q1 was still disappointing, with the exception of a handful of niche, high margin products....

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