June 2012 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker
Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis
Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium scrap.
Aluminium demand from automotive sector continues to reflect regional differences in economic performance. In the US car buyers continued to take advantage from cash for clunkers along with recent producer incentives during May which pushed sales up by 20% to 1.33 million compared to May 2011 according to Autodata. Despite the bearish jobs report in May we expect US car sales to reach 14.5 million driven by a combination of a stable recovery in the US economy, a backlog in demand of close to 8 million units vehicle purchases which have been put on hold since the 2008 financial crises as buyers did not feel confident enough to make new purchases and an increase in aluminium penetration. We estimate that demand for aluminium from the automotive sector in North America will reach 2.25 million tonnes plus another 200k tonnes for the repair and replacement market which is expected to grow...
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