January 2012 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker
Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis
Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium scrap.
Aluminium premiums in Europe remained under pressure with duty-paid material picking up last week to $180-190/tonne range from $170-190/tonne, the level last seen in November 2011. The recent wave of European production cutbacks as well as the widening of aluminium spreads has reduced the amount of metal available for consumption. We expect that as much as 700k tonnes have been cut from five million tonnes of the total of Western European capacity and more cuts are on the cards if the recent rally in aluminium prices proves unsustainable. The CIS-origin A7e premium moved up on Wednesday and was holding at $100-130/tonne up from $95-120/tonne. This comes following a recent announcement by Rusal that is cutting production by 6% (an estimated 250k tonnes) during the next 18 months. Given a recent FOMC announcement of a benign interest rate environment until at least 2014, slowly improving consumer confidence, the possibility of more...
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